2026 marks a pivotal turning point for the global photovoltaic industry, officially ending the two-year era of brutal overcapacity and low-price internal competition. In past years, most overseas solar distributors and EPC contractors focused solely on price comparison and low-volume procurement, relying on cost-cutting strategies to capture niche markets and secure marginal profits.

However, entering the second half of 2026, a series of industry-shifting changes — including the complete cancellation of China’s solar export tax rebates, the official implementation of the EU CBAM carbon tariff, the upcoming US Section 232 tariff adjustments, accelerated technological iteration, and optimized capacity structures — have thoroughly restructured the underlying competition logic of the global PV market.

The outdated business model of pure low-price sales has become completely unsustainable. Low-cost, low-quality solar modules are continuously losing market share, and loss-making price wars are no longer mainstream industry practices. For PV distributors serving Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, sticking to traditional low-price strategies will inevitably lead to customer loss, profit compression, and supply chain risks.

1.1 Market Change 1: Restructured Price Cycles Eliminate Low-Price Dividends, Entering a New Era of Stable Pricing & Quality Upgrades

From 2024 to 2025, the global PV industry suffered from severe overcapacity, triggering continuous price declines across the entire industrial chain, including polysilicon, silicon wafers, and finished modules. Many manufacturers shipped products below production costs to occupy market share, creating a short-term low-price bonus for overseas buyers. During this period, distributors could profit simply from bulk low-price procurement without professional technical support or scenario-based solutions.

In 2026, the resonance of industrial policy adjustments and supply chain optimization has completely terminated disorderly low-price competition, pushing the PV industry into a new cycle of stable price recovery and high-quality development.

1.1.1 Domestic Industrial Adjustment: Capacity Elimination & Industry Self-Discipline End Unregulated Price Wars

After two years of vicious price competition, more than 60% of small and medium-sized Chinese PV enterprises faced operational losses, forcing massive inefficient and backward production capacity to shut down. This effectively eased the industry’s long-standing overcapacity crisis.

In August 2026, eight leading domestic polysilicon manufacturers signed an industrial self-discipline initiative, committing to production control, price stabilization, and a complete ban on loss-making shipments. By locking polysilicon prices above production costs, the industry fundamentally eliminated the root cause of low-price dumping.

Since then, upstream polysilicon and silicon wafer prices have bottomed out and stabilized. Driven by overseas pre-tariff rush orders in Q4 2026, upstream prices have experienced periodic increases, gradually restoring module manufacturers’ profit margins. Extremely low-cost inventory modules are no longer available in the market, completely ending the low-price, high-volume profit model for overseas distributors.

1.1.2 Foreign Trade Policy Overhaul: Dual Policy Pressures Render Low-Cost Export Models Obsolete

Two major foreign trade policies implemented in 2026 have fundamentally reshaped China’s PV export pricing system, forcing the industry to phase out low-price competition and raising baseline costs for all overseas procurement.

1.1.2.1 Cancellation of Solar Export Tax Rebates Eliminates Low-Price Profit Margins

Starting from April 1, 2026, China officially abolished the 9% export tax rebate for all solar products, including PV modules, solar cells, and silicon wafers. Previously, manufacturers relied heavily on tax rebate subsidies to offset losses from low-price exports and maintain overseas cost competitiveness.

With the full removal of tax rebates, the industry’s last low-price profit buffer disappeared, directly increasing overall export costs by 8%–10%. All manufacturers have shifted to cost-based pricing, completely eradicating low-price dumping. Under this new policy landscape, high-efficiency N-type solar modules have become a mandatory standard for stable overseas exports, no longer an optional premium upgrade.

1.1.2.2 Official EU CBAM Implementation Bars Low-Efficiency, High-Carbon Modules

In August 2026, the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially began formal payment enforcement, covering solar modules and aluminum frames. Traditional low-cost modules feature high carbon emissions during production, resulting in heavy carbon tariff penalties that significantly raise their overall landing costs in Europe.

In contrast, high-quality, low-carbon high-efficiency modules with verified low carbon footprints achieve better comprehensive cost performance in EU markets. This policy has substantially raised European market entry thresholds, completely phasing out low-quality, low-efficiency modules from premium European projects.

1.1.3 Short-Term Price Forecast: Strong Volatility in Q4 2026, Moderate Adjustment Without Crash in H1 2027

1.1.3.1 Year-End Overseas Rush Orders Sustain High Module Prices

Ahead of the US new tariff policy taking effect on December 4, 2026, global overseas buyers have launched large-scale pre-stocking activities. Surging demand for silicon wafers and solar cells has strengthened upstream raw material prices, driving a slight upward adjustment in FOB module quotations. The overall market remains firm with no room for substantial price declines.

1.1.3.2 Demand Decline in H1 2027 Brings Mild Correction Without New Price Wars

After the conclusion of the US tariff window, short-term speculative stocking demand will fade, leading to a moderate correction in industrial chain prices in Q1 2027. However, thanks to completed inefficient capacity elimination and industry self-discipline mechanisms, large-scale price collapses and vicious competition will no longer occur. Market prices will remain within a reasonable profit range.

For overseas distributors, securing stable high-quality supply and locking prices in batches is far more strategic than blindly waiting for illusory low-price opportunities.

1.2 Market Change 2: Stabilized Technological Pattern — Dual N-Type Coexistence Replaces Blind Price Comparison with Scenario-Based Selection

In previous years, overseas distributors prioritized only power output and pricing when purchasing modules, with no differentiated evaluation for PERC or conventional N-type products. From 2026 to 2027, the global PV technological landscape has fully stabilized, forming a long-term coexistence of two core N-type technologies: TOPCon and Back-Contact (BC).

These two technical routes feature distinct application scenarios, power generation gains, and premium spaces. End customers’ procurement logic has shifted from “lowest price first” to “scenario matching and long-term ROI priority”, making technical value and applicability the core procurement criteria.

1.2.1 Solidified Dual-Technology Positioning: No Full Substitution Between TOPCon and BC

1.2.1.1 TOPCon Modules: Core Mainstream for Large-Scale Utility Projects

After years of mass production iteration, TOPCon technology boasts mature industrial chains, stable supply capacity, and controllable manufacturing costs. With a high bifaciality of 80%–85%, TOPCon modules perfectly adapt to open high-albedo scenarios such as desert ground power stations, snowfield projects, and large industrial rooftops.

TOPCon will continue to occupy over 60% of global PV shipment shares in H1 2027, serving as the core high-volume baseline product for distributors. Tailored for large-scale cost-effective projects, the Ocean Solar G12R 620–650W Bifacial TOPCon Solar Panel delivers consistent yield, superior bifacial power gain, and standardized specifications, making it the preferred cost-effective solution for overseas industrial and utility-scale solar projects.

1.2.1.2 BC Back-Contact Modules: High-Premium Track for Premium Distributed Solar

BC back-contact technology eliminates all front-side metal grid shading, featuring a lower temperature coefficient, excellent hot-spot resistance, and premium all-black aesthetics. It precisely fits high-end distributed scenarios including European residential rooftops, high-temperature Middle Eastern rooftops, shaded urban roofs, and BIPV projects.

Although BC modules currently carry a $0.02–$0.04/W premium, they deliver higher long-term power generation yields and longer warranty cycles. End customers show strong willingness to pay for technical upgrades, making BC products the core high-profit upgrade option for distributors.

1.2.1.2.1 BC Premium Gradually Narrowing in the Medium and Long Term

2026 marks the breakout year for BC capacity expansion. Leading manufacturers continue to renovate outdated production lines into BC-compatible facilities, with massive new capacity set to release in 2027. The widespread adoption of zero-busbar (0BB) silver-free technology will further reduce BC production costs, gradually narrowing the premium gap between BC and TOPCon modules.

Leveraging cutting-edge technological iteration, the Ocean Solar New 0BB BC Back-Contact Solar Panel adopts upgraded craftsmanship. Its zero-busbar structure reduces high-temperature power attenuation and improves low-light power generation performance, perfectly adapting to high-temperature and high-humidity distributed markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

1.2.1.2.2 Long-Term Dual-Route Coexistence Confirmed

The industry has bid farewell to the era of single-technology dominance. BC technology will never completely replace TOPCon. Instead, a stable dual N-type pattern will persist: TOPCon focuses on high-volume, cost-effective utility-scale projects with stable delivery, while BC targets high-premium distributed scenarios with superior lifecycle power generation value.

1.2.2 Upgraded Procurement Logic: Scenario Adaptation Over Blind Low-Price Selection

1.2.2.1 Open Large-Scale Projects: Prioritize TOPCon for Cost Efficiency

For unshaded ground-mounted power stations and open industrial rooftops with high ground reflectivity, TOPCon bifacial modules maximize rear-side power generation gains. With lower upfront costs and more stable supply chains, TOPCon remains the most cost-effective choice, eliminating the need for unnecessary BC premium investment.

1.2.2.2 High-Temperature & Shaded Distributed Projects: Prioritize BC for Long-Term ROI

For high-temperature regions in Southern Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, as well as shaded urban residential rooftops, BC modules’ lower temperature coefficient and outstanding hot-spot resistance effectively reduce long-term operation and maintenance losses. They deliver significantly higher full-lifecycle power generation returns than low-cost conventional modules, justifying customer premium payments for technical value.

1.3 Market Change 3: Updated B2B Procurement Standards — Three Core Metrics Replace Pure Low-Price Prioritization

Before 2026, overseas B2B buyers, distributors, and EPCs regarded low pricing as the sole decisive factor for procurement. However, entering the second half of 2026, with industry standardization and market upgrading, end-user procurement decisions have undergone fundamental changes. Delivery stability, scenario-based product matching, and warranty & compliance certification have become the three core procurement weights. Orders relying solely on low prices continue to decline, while comprehensive product and service strength defines core competitiveness.

1.3.1 Core Metric 1: Supply Chain Delivery Stability

Amid industrial capacity reshuffling, technological iteration, and frequent policy fluctuations, overseas buyers no longer chase extreme low prices. Instead, they prioritize project implementation stability. Low-cost suppliers with frequent delivery delays and inconsistent batch quality often cause EPC contract breaches and customer complaints, resulting in hidden losses far exceeding procurement price differences.

1.3.1.1 TOPCon Highlights Supply Chain Stability Advantages

With decentralized mature capacity, sufficient inventory, and controllable lead times, TOPCon modules support large-batch stocking and rapid inventory turnover, minimizing supply chain interruption risks. Ocean Solar supports overseas distributors with mature mass production lines and standardized quality control systems, providing stable bulk delivery and consistent batch quality for N-type TOPCon modules, with flexible long-term price locking and phased shipment solutions.

1.3.1.2 BC Procurement Requires Strict Mass Production Stability Verification

Current BC capacity is highly concentrated, with most production lines still in the ramp-up stage, leading to minor fluctuations in yield and output. Distributors sourcing BC modules must strictly verify manufacturers’ mass production capacity and batch stability to avoid delivery delays and quality defects.

1.3.2 Core Metric 2: Professional Scenario-Based Product Matching Capability

The overseas PV market has entered a refined segmented competition era, where generic low-price modules lose competitive edge. High-quality distributors have transformed from simple product sellers to professional solution providers. Accurately matching TOPCon, BC, bifacial, or monofacial modules according to local climate conditions, rooftop environments, and project types is the key to widening profit gaps. Ocean Solar supports diversified global scenarios by providing integrated module, inverter, and energy storage solutions, covering standalone component procurement and full EPC system package demands.

1.3.3 Core Metric 3: Complete Warranty System & Third-Party Compliance Certification

Tightening global import policies and EU carbon regulations have raised strict requirements for PV product compliance and warranty credibility. Low-cost small-brand modules commonly suffer from incomplete certifications, unqualified carbon footprints, false warranty claims, and insufficient after-sales support, leading to customs detention and project failure risks in formal overseas projects.

1.3.3.1 Full Compliance Certification Becomes a Basic Export Threshold

Exports to mainstream markets including Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia require complete TÜV and IEC certificates, qualified carbon footprint reports, and formal linear power warranty agreements. Missing any qualification will result in failed customs clearance and project acceptance.

1.3.3.2 Long-Term Warranty Becomes a Key Premium Advantage

Premium BC modules support up to 30-year linear power warranties, while standard TOPCon modules provide 25-year guaranteed performance. Compared with short-warranty low-cost modules from small factories, long-lifecycle warranty systems deliver stable long-term power generation returns for end clients, significantly improving product premium capability and customer repurchase rates.

1.4 2026–2027 Strategic Layout Suggestions for Overseas PV Distributors

Facing the three major industrial transformations, overseas solar distributors must abandon traditional low-price high-volume strategies, adapt to the new value-based competition landscape, and optimize product layout, procurement tactics, and market operation methods to maintain sustainable profitability in the new industry cycle.

1.4.1 Product Layout: Dual Technical Pipeline Balances Volume Sales & High Premium Profit

Build a dual-product operation system: adopt cost-effective TOPCon modules for large-scale utility projects and low-end market volume sales, and deploy high-efficiency, high-yield BC modules to capture high-margin residential and premium distributed projects. Distributors can achieve one-stop high-and-low-end product coverage via Ocean Solar’s dual N-type product lines, reducing multi-supplier docking costs and enriching project service capabilities.

1.4.2 Procurement Strategy: Lock Prices & Stock in Batches to Avoid Market Volatility Risks

Against the backdrop of high price volatility in Q4 2026 and moderate market adjustment in H1 2027, distributors should abandon blind bottom-hunting mentality. Adopt long-term price locking and phased stocking strategies to secure stable high-quality supply at reasonable costs, effectively avoiding short-term price fluctuation risks and protecting inventory profit margins.

1.4.3 Competition Upgrade: Shift From Price Competition to Value & Service Competition

Differentiate market competitiveness through professional scenario-based selection, full compliance guarantee, and reliable after-sales warranty services, replacing simple low-price competition with comprehensive solution value. Beyond standalone PV modules, the Ocean Solar All-in-One ESS Energy Storage System perfectly adapts to overseas off-grid residential and small commercial projects, helping distributors extend product chains, increase per-customer output value, and boost overall profit margins.

1.5 Conclusion: The Global PV Industry Enters a New Era of High-Quality Value Competition

2026–2027 officially ends the barbaric low-price expansion stage of the global photovoltaic industry, completing a comprehensive transformation from “price wars” to “value wars”. Restructured price cycles, finalized technological patterns, and upgraded B2B procurement standards have reshaped the entire overseas PV competition ecosystem.

For overseas solar distributors, clinging to outdated low-price strategies will gradually eliminate market competitiveness. Adapting to industrial upgrades, focusing on scenario-based technical matching, ensuring supply stability and full compliance, and building differentiated service value have become the core logic of long-term profitable operation.

In the future global PV market, low pricing will no longer be a core advantage — product quality, technological performance, professional service, and full policy compliance will dominate long-term industrial competition. As a professional manufacturer deeply engaged in global B2B PV exports, Ocean Solar will continue iterating high-performance N-type TOPCon and 0BB BC modules, as well as integrated solar energy storage solutions, providing global distributors with stable, compliant, high-premium product support and empowering long-term win-win development in the 2027 value-oriented solar industry.