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Views: 124 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2026-08-14 Origin: Site
Since the first half of 2026, the global photovoltaic (PV) market has witnessed a disruptive price shift. The two-year prolonged downward price spiral of PV modules has completely ended, replaced by a rapid industry-wide price increase. According to authoritative PV industry data agencies including Infolink and SMM (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network), from March to August 2026, the price of mainstream domestic N-type TOPCon PV modules has risen by 15%-20%, while high-power and high-efficiency modules have seen a price surge exceeding 50%. The prices of N-type solar cells have climbed sharply for two consecutive weeks, with the average prices of 183N, 210RN, and 210N models reaching ¥0.29/W, ¥0.28/W, and ¥0.285/W respectively, with a single-week growth rate of over 7%, hitting the highest monthly increase record in the past 18 months. This round of price hikes is not a short-term market speculation, but a result of the in-depth resonance of multiple factors including raw material costs, policy adjustments, supply and demand relations, industrial capacity changes, and international trade. It has completely reshaped the industrial logic of PV terminal procurement, power station investment, and distributor inventory preparation. This article deeply analyzes the underlying core causes of the current solar panel price surge, provides practical coping solutions for residential users, commercial and industrial power station investors, PV distributors and investors, and predicts the short-term, medium-term and long-term price trends based on industrial capacity data, policy orientation and market demand, delivering professional, authentic and referential decision-making basis for all PV practitioners, investors and end users.
The current round of PV panel price increases features comprehensiveness, sustainability and structural differentiation, which is distinct from the minor price fluctuations caused by short-term supply and demand imbalances in previous years. Driven by multiple factors rather than a single cause, it forms a price increase closed loop superimposed by rising upstream rigid costs, industrial capacity clearance, domestic policy adjustments, international trade barriers and rebounding market demand.
Raw materials account for more than 70% of the production cost of solar panels. In 2026, the collective price increase of precious metals, metal main materials and silicon material chains has broken through the industry’s low-cost bottom line, serving as the core fundamental incentive for the current price surge.
Silver paste is a core consumable for solar cell electrode fabrication, accounting for 15%-20% of the production cost of N-type cells and acting as a key variable affecting cell costs. Since 2026, global spot silver prices have continued to rise. Coupled with the popularization of N-type technology in the PV industry and the slower-than-expected progress of silver paste consumption optimization, the overall silver consumption cost of the industry has increased significantly. According to calculations by industry analysts from China Economic Net and OFweek Solar PV Network, the surge in silver prices alone has increased the production cost per watt of PV modules by ¥0.15-¥0.2, accounting for more than 40% of the total module price increase. Compared with P-type cells, mainstream N-type high-efficiency cells such as TOPCon and HJT require higher purity and dosage of silver paste. Therefore, the cost increase of high-efficiency modules is far higher than that of ordinary modules, which is the core reason for the doubled price growth of high-power solar panels.
The continue price war in the PV industry from 2024 to 2025 forced a large number of small and medium-sized silicon material enterprises to suspend production due to losses, leading to the contraction of effective upstream silicon material capacity in 2026. In the second quarter of 2026, global PV installed demand rebounded concentratedly, the downstream operating rate continued to rise, and silicon material demand rebounded rapidly. However, the upstream capacity recovery cycle is relatively long, resulting in a periodic supply-demand mismatch. According to the latest August data from Sov PV Network, although domestic silicon material inventory has accumulated, effective circulating supply is tight. Silicon wafer enterprises maintain production and raise prices on purpose, driving the gradual upward transmission of costs in cell and module links, and forming an industry-wide price increase effect.
In addition to core raw materials such as silver and silicon, the prices of supporting auxiliary materials for PV modules including aluminum alloy frames, encapsulated copper strips and glass sheets have also risen synchronously in 2026. Affected by global commodity fluctuations, domestic energy consumption control and rising raw material transportation costs, the comprehensive cost of auxiliary materials has increased by ¥0.06-¥0.07 per watt, further amplifying the overall price increase of solar panels and eliminating the industry’s room for price reduction.
Policy adjustment is the direct trigger for the rapid rise of solar panel prices in 2026, with strong timeliness and industrial influence.
In accordance with official policy documents issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, China has fully canceled the 9% export tax rebate for all categories of PV products including modules, cells and silicon wafers since April 1, 2026. Previously, domestic PV enterprises relied on export tax rebates to hedge losses from low-price competition and maintain low-price export advantages in overseas markets. After the cancellation of the tax rebate policy, enterprise export costs rose sharply. To guarantee basic profits, leading manufacturers including LONGi, Jinko Solar, Trina Solar and JA Solar have collectively raised product quotations, directly driving the synchronous rise of global solar panel prices. Industry calculations show that the cancellation of tax rebates has directly increased module export costs by 8%-10%, becoming the key trigger for the price jump in the second quarter.
Before the policy implementation, overseas purchasers and domestic export enterprises anticipated cost increases and concentrated on advance stockpiling and locked-order procurement. The short-term concentrated outbreak of downstream demand rapidly consumed spot market supply, further exacerbating spot shortages, pushing solar panel prices to soar in the short term, and forming a dual price increase effect of "policy expectation + demand rush installation".
The extreme price war from 2024 to 2025 plunged the entire PV industrial chain into losses, laying the foundation for the 2026 price rebound.
In the past two years, the PV industry suffered from overcapacity and vicious low-price competition. A large number of enterprises shipped products below production costs, with the industry-wide loss ratio exceeding 60%. The terminal module price once fell below ¥0.6/W, far below the industry profit and loss line. Long-term losses forced small and medium-sized manufacturers to suspend or reduce production, keeping the overall industry operating rate at a low level of 60%-70%. The continuous contraction of effective supply created favorable supply conditions for price recovery and repair in 2026.
Starting from 2026, leading PV enterprises have gradually abandoned the low-price volume-oriented strategy and shifted to the business logic of technical premium and profit recovery. Industry leaders have taken the initiative to stabilize the industrial price system by controlling shipment volume, raising quotations and prioritizing shipments of high-efficiency capacity, completely ending the two-year vicious price war and bringing solar panel prices back to a reasonable profit range.
While supply shrinks, global terminal demand continues to recover, forming a two-way supply-demand favorable pattern for price increases.
According to statistics from People’s Daily and Global PV Magazine, global new PV installed capacity is expected to increase by more than 22% year-on-year in 2026. Installation demand has exploded intensively in emerging markets including Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. Domestic county-level promotion, commercial and industrial distributed PV and large-scale base projects continue to be implemented, releasing sustained terminal rigid demand. The steady growth of demand ensures sufficient market acceptance for price hikes, avoiding a collapse in demand after price increases.
As PV power stations raise requirements for power generation efficiency and return on investment (ROI), inefficient P-type modules are gradually phased out, and N-type high-efficiency modules such as TOPCon, BC and HJT have become market mainstream. High-efficiency modules feature high technical thresholds and relatively scarce capacity, with high market recognition and inherent technical premiums. Their price increase range is much higher than that of conventional modules, driving the continuous upward trend of overall market average prices.
The continuous implementation of the U.S. Section 232 trade policy in 2026 has greatly increased overseas stockpiling demand for Chinese PV products. Fearing escalating trade barriers and rising import costs in the future, overseas purchasers have actively locked orders and purchased in batches, further exacerbating domestic spot supply-demand tension, boosting the continuous rise of solar panel prices, and forming a pattern of synchronous global price increases.
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Faced with this round of sustained and structural price increases, different PV market players adopt completely different coping logic. Residential PV owners, commercial and industrial power station investors, PV distributors, EPC enterprises and large-scale power station investors need to formulate differentiated solutions based on their own needs, so as to avoid cost losses caused by price hikes and seize the development opportunities of standardized industrial prices.
Based on the current industrial trend, solar panel prices will remain high and volatile in the short term with no room for sharp declines. For household users with rigid demands for self-power consumption and grid-connected revenue, there is no need for prolonged waiting. It is recommended to finalize installation plans and lock contract prices as soon as possible. With the synchronous rise of raw material, labor and auxiliary material costs in the future, the overall installation cost will continue to rise. Early installation locks lower overall investment costs and enables users to obtain power generation benefits and subsidy dividends earlier.
In a price-rising environment, blindly choosing low-cost and low-efficiency modules is not advisable. Although N-type high-efficiency modules have a higher unit price, they feature 10%-15% higher power generation efficiency, lower attenuation rate and longer service life. The total power generation over the 25-year lifecycle is far higher than that of ordinary modules, delivering a higher overall ROI. Residential installations are recommended to prioritize first-tier brand TOPCon modules to offset rising unit costs by improving power generation efficiency.
Avoid blind overcapacity configuration. Accurately match the installation capacity according to household average daily power consumption, roof area and local light conditions to reduce unnecessary equipment investment. Meanwhile, adopt high-quality supporting equipment such as inverters and brackets to improve the overall system stability, reduce later maintenance and replacement costs, and achieve optimal comprehensive costs.
Commercial and industrial power stations feature large installation scales and high cost sensitivity. Faced with the continuous price hike trend, enterprises can sign long-term framework agreements with leading suppliers to lock bulk orders and phased bottom prices, securing 3-6 months of supply prices and goods sources to prevent investment budget overruns caused by short-term continuous price increases. The current stable industrial supply makes long-term order locking highly cost-effective.
For large-scale commercial and industrial PV projects and park distributed PV projects, adopt a phased construction and implementation model. Prioritize the construction of rigid-demand projects, postpone non-urgent projects, and carry out capacity expansion after market prices stabilize to balance short-term cost pressure and long-term investment returns.
The initial investment of power stations has increased due to rising solar panel prices. Equipping small-scale energy storage systems and adopting peak-valley arbitrage modes can improve the self-consumption rate and revenue space of commercial and industrial power stations. The mode of self-use of photovoltaic power in the daytime, energy storage discharge at night and power sales during peak electricity price periods offsets equipment price increase costs and shortens the investment payback period.
With the market in an upward price trend, distributors do not need large-scale stockpiling to avoid capital occupation, nor zero inventory which may lead to order loss. Maintain moderate inventory of mainstream high-efficiency modules and conventional accessories according to monthly sales volume, balance inventory costs and supply stability, and avoid operational risks caused by sharp price fluctuations.
Gradually phase out low-efficiency and low-margin outdated P-type modules, and vigorously promote high-power N-type products such as TOPCon and BC modules. Despite higher procurement prices, these products feature large premium space, high terminal recognition and low after-sales failure rates, which can effectively increase single-product profits and adapt to the current high-quality development trend of the industry.
During the price hike cycle, EPC contractors need to strictly control additional costs including labor, transportation, auxiliary materials and operation & maintenance, optimize construction processes and improve construction efficiency. Offset profit compression caused by equipment price increases through refined management to ensure the overall profitability of projects.
Investors of centralized large-scale PV base projects and new energy power stations should abandon the traditional low-price competition mindset, focus on long-term industrial development, and prioritize technically mature, stable and low-attenuation high-efficiency modules to guarantee stable power generation returns for 25 years. Meanwhile, layout high-quality overseas markets and domestic new energy supporting projects in line with policy orientation to avoid price fluctuation risks in a single market.
Combined with the upstream capacity release rhythm, raw material price trends, policy stability, global supply-demand pattern and technical iteration speed, the future PV panel price trend can be divided into short-term, medium-term and long-term stages. All trend predictions are based on authoritative data from Sov PV, TrendForce and Infolink, featuring authenticity, objectivity and high reference value.
In the second half of 2026, the price of mainstream N-type TOPCon modules will stabilize at ¥0.8-¥0.85/W, and high-power modules will remain at ¥0.85-¥0.9/W, showing a trend of "slight fluctuations and upward center of gravity" with no sharp drop as seen in previous years. The prices of cells and silicon wafers will stabilize alongside modules, and the entire industrial chain will enter a benign profit repair stage.
In the short term, four core factors including high and volatile silver prices, irreversible export tax rebate policies, low industrial operating rates and strong overseas stockpiling demand will not fade quickly, continuously supporting high solar panel prices. Meanwhile, the third and fourth quarters are the peak seasons for global PV installations, with continuous release of terminal demand further consolidating the price bottom and eliminating sharp price decline risks.
In the first half of 2027, with the gradual release of new upstream silicon material capacity and steady recovery of industrial operating rates, the tight market supply-demand pattern will gradually ease. The overall price hike rhythm of solar panels will slow down, entering a stage of stable operation with minor adjustments without trending declines.
Inefficient P-type modules may see slight price declines due to overcapacity and backward technology; while N-type high-efficiency modules, BC modules and customized high-power modules will maintain firm prices with sustained technical premiums due to strong demand and scarce capacity. The industry will officially enter a new era of "premium for high quality and price reduction for low efficiency".
In the long run, after the second half of 2027, new capacity across the global PV industrial chain will be intensively launched, the supply-demand balance of the industry will be restored, and solar panel prices will gradually correct rationally, ending the current round of price repair rally.
It is worth emphasizing that the future price decline is a rational regression rather than a return to the ultra-low loss price range of 2025. After this round of industrial capacity clearance and profit repair, the PV industry has bid farewell to vicious price involution and entered a high-quality development stage. The entire industrial chain will maintain a reasonable profit margin with more stable and healthy price fluctuations.
The gradual commercialization of new-generation PV technologies such as HJT and perovskite will bring periodic price adjustments. High-efficiency new-technology modules will maintain long-term premiums, while outdated technology modules will be phased out gradually, driving the continuous optimization and upgrading of the industrial price system.
The 2026 solar panel price surge is an important turning point for the PV industry to bid farewell to low-price involution and move towards high-quality, high-profit and standardized development. It is an inevitable result of the multi-dimensional optimization of costs, policies, supply-demand relations and industrial patterns, rather than short-term market speculation. End users do not need to panic about price increases; completing rigid installations in a timely manner and selecting high-efficiency products can effectively offset rising costs. Industry practitioners must abandon low-price competition strategies and focus on technological upgrading, quality improvement and service optimization to adapt to the new industrial price pattern. In the long run, the solar panel industry has completely exited the ultra-low-price era. The future market will focus on price stability, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with continuous optimization of industrial investment value, product quality and terminal returns. The global new energy PV track will continue to deliver long-term and stable development dividends.
